Daily Lesson from Life 22 December 2008

"Millions face job losses in Asia
Strong sense of insecurity among migrant workers, college graduates and white-collar workers. -Mon, Dec 22, 2008 Asia News Network

Unemployment is expected to rise in Asia next year as the rest of the world reels from the impact of the global financial crisis.


Already, migrant jobseekers in China are facing uncertainties about their prospects while Indonesia estimates that about one million could lose their jobs in 2009 as many industries cut jobs due to weak revenues. In

South Korea, public firms are also reducing jobs with at least 19,000 facing the ax.
A sense of uncertainty is growing among jobseekers in China faces a worsening employment situation, experts said last week.


"There is a strong sense of insecurity among migrant workers, college graduates and even white-collar workers amid the global financial crisis," Guo Weiqing, a professor of public administration at Guangzhou's Sun Yat-sen University, told China Daily.

Tens of thousands of migrant workers have lost their jobs in Guangdong province with the closure of factories hit by the crisis.


"It's like an epidemic and everyone is now worried about their jobs," Guo said.

According to the latest survey from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security this week, 4.85 million jobless migrant workers had returned to their hometowns by the end of November, and nationwide, more than 10 million of migrants are currently out of work.


Around 670,000 small firms have closed this year as a result of the global financial crisis, adding to employment pressures, State Council advisor Chen Quansheng told a forum in Beijing on Friday.

About 6.7 million jobs vanished, many in the export hub of Guangdong, pushing unemployment well above the official figure of 8.3 million, Chen said.


"The real figure is much higher than the official statistics, which only report urban registered jobless," he said.
"The major problem in China now is employment, especially for university graduates and young migrant workers," Chen said.

An increasing number of graduates will face a more difficult situation next year. The unemployment rate for new graduates is over 12 percent and 1.5 million of them will be without a job by the end of this year, while 6.1 million more will enter the job market next year, a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences report said.


"Facing such a tough time, young migrant workers and students can easily get emotional or hotheaded and may become a potential threat to social stability," Guo warned."

A topic I have commented earlier. There is no solution really as when demand drops due to affordability, there is not much the government can do except to boost public spending which only benefit certain industries and certain type of jobs!

Besides trying to create more demand from the private sector and consumers, the people may want to focus on 'managing expectations'. Whoever can better managed his or her expectations will probably be a happier person in time of massive job loss!! e.g. spend way within what you earn, draw on your 'rainy day saving' as slowly as you can, learn to live off the land and the bare essential without hurting your health too much!, etc.

There are no specific 1-2-3 lessons for me today, just the general principles I just shared above.

The growth will come from public spending on infrastructure like houses, bridges, ports, etc that will benefit cheap construction workers but will not benefit the 'white collar folks'!

The export market will take at least 18 months to gain any strength as USA consumers SIMPLY cannot afford to spend anything extra! They simply have to change from 'consuming on credit' to 'consuming ONLY when absolutely necessary!'. That will reduce demands naturally be at least 50% as most consumption are superfluous!

Not a pretty picture but the new economic reality is upon us. We better get used to it and maybe we can look at sustainable growth when more does not mean better anymore. We will scrutinize the quality of growth - only those sustainable ones will be singled out for praises while those not will be condemned!

Maybe we can give Mother Earth a chance to recuperating and in steady state for a long long time!